China’s unclear stances on Russia’s annexation of Eastern Ukraine are based on a contradiction in Chinese thinking about the rules of territorial integrity. Chinese thought is split, but most back the mainstream view, that China resembles Russia, in that both are supposedly trying to reclaim their rightful historic territory, lost by illegitimate and weak leadership. Alternatively, there are those who see China as resembling Ukraine, both fighting interference from a large foreign states who are supporting local separatist movements and illegitimate governments that threaten legitimate sovereignty and territorial integrity. Increased hostility towards perceived US hegemony might incline China to more clearly support Russia, but because of this contradiction, which carries consequences if China backs either side, it will likely sit on the fence throughout the conflict. This avoids either setting a dangerous precedent in supporting either the abrogation of the world order being replaced by “might makes right,” which could lead to future proxy wars which destabilize China, or supporting the same self-determination and international legal framework that would sanction the PRC if it invaded Taiwan.
中國對俄羅斯併吞烏克蘭領土的反應很複雜。因為中國自己內部的分裂主義區像新疆、西藏跟內蒙古等的問題,中國平常非常反對分裂主義,但對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的問題,中國的措辭很不透明又難以理解。
中國持續透過聲明表達對平民生命損失的遺憾,但迄今中國還沒譴責俄羅斯的行為,也對所有批評俄羅斯的聯合國決議投棄權票。
中國媒體對俄羅斯侵入的論述也有矛盾。這個混亂的反應的原因很簡單,是因為中國對台灣問題也有一樣的矛盾,造成中國外交的措辭複雜化。
中國經典的立意是台灣是中國的不可分裂的一部分,中國就像俄羅斯一樣想要把中國歷史上的領土收回祖國,所以要援助俄羅斯跟烏克蘭同胞們統一。
但中國也有另外一個立意,是中國不像俄羅斯而像烏克蘭,以前完整的領土已有一部分在外國分裂主義的干涉下被「截肢」了,也認為分裂地方政府的行為都是無效的 ,所以要援助烏克蘭擊退外國新殖民主義者。
這兩個立場在不同的平台都被刊出過,代表中國共產黨不想選邊而想採取中立的立場,因為兩個選擇都對中國有長期風險。
如果中國現在支持俄羅斯、霸權主義的「拳頭大就是真理」,未來跟印度、美國、或其他大國的關係會非常危險,因為會為分裂主義地區帶來代理人戰爭的風險,以及威脅中國國家凝聚力。
如果中國支持烏克蘭、國際秩序跟國際法,如果有先例未來世界會更反對大國入侵小國,而中國未來威脅台灣的成本會升高。
這下子,為了避免選邊,中國最好的選擇是在修辭上繼續中立地支持和平而不動手。
Written by Ari B.
Edited by Eddie C.