Huang Wei-che (黃偉哲) is gearing up to run for reelection at the end of this year, TVBS polling shows he’s likely to win if he does. If he doesn’t the DDP is still likely to succeed.
Huang is likely to be the candidate once again for the DPP and as polling earlier this month showed, he’s pretty popular right now. Now new polling shows that he is likely to beat any candidate the KMT throws at him.
Chen I-hsin (陳以信) is one option for the KMT to pit against Huang. Chen is a Tainan native and current member of the Legislative Yuan. Unfortunately for Chen and the KMT, if polling holds, Huang would obliterate Chen. In the survey, Huang received 62 percent support to Chen’s 13. 25 percent were undecided, however that is not even enough to make up the canyon wide gap between the two.
The KMT could send out Kao Su-po (高思博) who lost to Huang in the 2018 mayoral race, and is also the former Minister of Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission. According to poll results, Kao would only net 20 percent of the vote, Huang is projected to take 57. According to the data 23 percent have no opinion.
When matched up against Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介), current Tainan city councilor, Huang comes out 20 points on top. In the polling data Huang received 51 percent and Hsieh received just 31. Though importantly a large portion of non-partisan voters are still undecided which could easily swing to one side just before the election.
Of the voters not affiliated with either party, Huang commands 43%, Hsieh received 24 percent, and 33 percent remain undecided. While this group could all swing to the KMT’s rescue, it is unlikely that they would all vote for Hsieh, which is essentially what would be required for a blue victory.
There are rumblings of the DPP attempting to run Chen Ting-fei (陳亭妃) for the Tainan mayoral position. Chen is currently a member of the Legislative Yuan representing Tainan City, a position she has held since 2008. If Chen were to be the DDP’s candidate the races get a bit tighter, but she still comes out on top.
Even the best KMT opponent according to the polls, Hsieh Lung-chieh, would lose by 4 points to Chen Ting-fei. in the polling of the matchup, Chen received 41 percent, while Hsieh racked up 37. This is the closest head-to-head in the polling and with 22 percent not giving their choice the title of Tainan Mayor could easily fall to the KMT.
There is a lot that could change in the next few months before the election. However, if nothing radical happens it is likely that Huang will continue his tenure as mayor. being his support seems to keep climbing, recent satisfaction ratings growing to 64 percent while his unfavorables sit at 16.
The survey was conducted by TVBS from January 20th to the 25th. It polled 1,382 Tainan citizens over the age of 20. 368 were rejected leaving 1,014 valid samples. The sampling error for the poll was +/-3.1 percent. They used telephones to conduct the poll.