香港的遊行已經有繼續了幾乎兩個月,抗議強度持續增加,並很明顯會再繼續到林鄭下台。中國在場運動之中的角色佔了主要的影響力,中國主要為了兩個利益對香港採取行動:第一是保持共場黨政權的穩定,第二是維護中國的領土完整,中國認為領土是包括香港跟台灣,中國不想讓民主存在於台灣與香港中。

After nearly two months, the protests in Hong Kong show no sign of letting up, in fact, they are increasing in intensity. China, the player in this conflict with the most power to influence the situation, seems to be acting towards its two primary interests: preserving Chinese public opinion about the CCP’s ability to maintain stability and preserving the supposed territorial integrity of China, which in CCP parlance includes Hong Kong and China.

為了把林鄭的反對者除去,中國大陸其實有力量使香港軍警阻止這些遊行,但迄今中國共產黨還未讓運動達到那步。主要的原因是,如果中國使軍力控制香港與他們放棄跟台灣的和平統一,對台灣進行武力控制,它就威脅到中國社會控制的合法性,並可能催化中國共產黨在中國統治的逐步結束。另一方面,如果香港這個抗議運動繼續太久,中國人民和香港人之後不會害怕反對政府。中國現在的目標是解決這個矛盾。

China has the ability to use force to end these protests at any time that it wishes, however, up to this point it hasn’t allowed the conflict to reach that crescendo. The primary reason is that if China uses force to crush the protests, it abandons the possibility of any future peaceful settlement to reunify with Taiwan. The inverse is also true though if these protests continue and people start to lose their fear of the resolve of the Chinese government to use force, it threatens the legitimacy of the social control in China and could catalyze the gradual end of CCP rule in China. Their aim right now is to try and extricate the country from this conundrum.

最近的香港黑幫在地鐵對民眾的攻擊影片流出,讓香港看起來越來越混亂。這下子,給了中國政府藉口,他們有理由使用更強烈的手段來控制香港與反對群眾。台灣要記得,香港的混亂如果是真的不是香港黑幫製造的話,就是共產黨和香港超級腐敗的政府聯手導致的。香港目前的情況,是香港政府未能無能得表現,而中國在背後的獨裁手段也無法讓香港人信服。香港人必須有自己的選舉,真正的民主普選,林鄭也必須下台,否則這場衝突仍不會終止。

The vicious attack on the subway was a deliberate act of provocation designed to make Hong Kong appear as though it is in a state of chaos. The more chaotic Hong Kong appears, the better the Chinese government can be equipped in their response to these protests, especially in using lethal force to disperse peaceful crowds. Taiwanese must remember, in formulating their opinions, that even if the chaos is real and isn’t simply fomented by government-allied triad gangsters who the CCP and the corrupted Hong Kong government have through their blatant negligence been allowed to terrorize Hong Kong for years, then it must be realized that the condition of Hong Kong, the chaos, is completely the fault of the Hong Kong government and their failure to govern. This is not a situation that can be resolved by force. The people of Hong Kong must feel represented by their leadership, and this authoritarian system will never be able to satisfy the people of Hong Kong. If this problem is to be solved, there must be elections with universal suffrage, there must be a democracy, and Carrie Lam must step down, or there will be no true resolution to this conflict and blood will be on their hands.

Staff writer: Ari B