中美貿易戰 誰是贏家- A Sino-US Trade War and Who else gets hurt?

台灣時間23日，美國總統川普祭出「301調查」大刀揮向中國，對規模600億美元的中國進口產品課徵報復性高關稅及投資限制，而中國也立即回應反制， 針對128 項美國進口產品加徵關稅。

 

中美貿易開戰原因

美國總統川普表示，中國於2001年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)之後，從全球市場中獲取巨大利益，但卻沒有做出任何有助於市場化的改革，反而加強對貿易的控制及設置貿易壁壘，例如：禁止美國公司進入中國市場，除非中國能分享其技術已換取進入中國市場的資格，這種做法不符合WTO成員當初設立的願景，而美國再也無法容忍這種「不公平、互惠」的做法。

再加上，中國是美國最大貿易逆差的來源國，根據美國商務部的統計美國從1985年開始出現6億美元的逆差，統計至2017年，美國對中國的貿易逆差金額已高達375億美元。

中國的外匯儲備基本上全部是來自於對美貿易的順差

美國對中國貿易赤字從1985年就已存在，而歷屆美國政府為什麼會允許這麼多年來貿易逆差的發生？

是因為他們需要大量的預算來從事政府、社會福利，而美國預算超額的部份，他們需要賣國債以維持大規模的開支。而美國也表示希望中國政府能購買國債，中國也的確購買大量美國國債，而他們正是用美國貿易順差賺來的錢來大量購買美國國債，美國國債一直被許多國家視為外匯儲備投資中最安全、流動性最高的資產，中國外匯儲備投資中占比最大的就是美國國債，這就是為什麼歷屆美國政府容忍這幾年來的貿易赤字。

貿易戰開打 台灣產業備受衝擊

中美貿易戰開打，台灣的立場會更艱困，中國大陸為台商海外投資及生產重鎮，主要為「台灣接單→中國大陸生產出貨→美國消費」的三角貿易模式。

台灣對中國大陸的出口，大多屬在中國大陸加工後，再出口至美國等工業國家的中間材，以2017 年來看，其中對中國大陸與香港出口比重占41%，總金額高達 1,302 億美元，對該市場依存性高，其中又以電子消費、紡織、機械加工及電子零組件產業在陸加工占比較高，所受影響程度較大。若美中貿易關係緊張，致中國大陸出口受挫，則台灣對中國大陸出口亦將深受影響，間接衝擊台灣經濟。

 

美國總統川普祭出以301條款及各種單邊制裁措施來「維護美國利益」，未來如果美國無法縮減對大陸的貿易赤字，貿易戰勢必會越演越烈，被制裁的國家會因進口關稅增加，而造成成本增加。

至於中國是否會讓步，其他國家是否會買單都仍待觀察，但可確定的是，這只是貿易戰的開端，而貿易戰中，沒有贏家。

 

In the latest step in Trump’s professed aim of initiating a trade war, on the 23rd of this month, Taiwan time, the US released its findings and suggestions for import duties to be levied against an array of Chinese products under section 301 of the US trade code.

Reasons for the Initiation of a Trade War

Trump has stated that post China’s 2001 accession to WTO, that China has reaped large benefits, but the the Chinese economy has essentially undergone no internal marketization reforms since that date. On the contrary, this era has instead seen the erection of a new set of trade barriers, for instance, Chinese restrictions on American companies entering the Chinese market. Unless there are reforms made on the rules surrounding the exchange of technology, including strengthening of patent, contract, and intellectual property rules, as well as an easing of restrictions regarding the introduction of foreign companies into the Chinese market, the US will consider China in contravention of WTO rules, and no longer tolerate what they see as uneven trade barriers instead of reciprocal opening.   

China is the largest source of America’s trade deficit. The trade deficit between the two countries began in 1985 with 600 million USD, and has continually increased since then. In 2017, the deficit between the US and China stood at 38 billion USD.

China’s Foreign Exchange Surpluses Stem from their Trade Imbalance

Historically, The United States has enjoyed many years of pressure-free government deficits. Decades of deficit spending have gone towards the provision of government services, entitlement programs, and military spending. In the past, the Chinese government has used excess foreign capital from their trade surplus to purchase US treasury bonds, essentially funding US deficit spending while preventing the US treasury from needing to issue interest rate increases. China has become one of the largest purchasers of US government bond debt. Stable and liquid, US treasury bonds make up the largest portion of China’s foreign exchange holdings. This is the precise reason why the US has allowed the maintenance of this trade imbalance for so long.

Taiwanese Trade Will Suffer in a Trade War

In the event of a full-on Sino-US trade war, Taiwan will be one of the largest victims. Typical three way trade follows the pattern of Taiwan providing IP and order processing, China producing the goods and shipping, and the US consuming the final product. This model can be simplified as a kind of triangle of production and consumption.

A large portion of Taiwanese goods and production orders have value-added along the production process in China, before being delivered to their destination countries. As a proportion of Taiwanese trade, in 2017, China and Hong Kong represented 41% of all exports, accounting for 130 billion US dollars of trade. The markets are startlingly interdependent, and include sectors such as electronics assembly and semiconductors, textiles, machining and electronic components. These sectors are all extremely dependent on China, with a very large proportion of their final value added in the products’ China-based processing. This level of interdependence means that Taiwan’s trade and manufacturing is also highly vulnerable to shocks, and a trade war could be catastrophic to Taiwan’s economy.

Trump has at this point has opened an investigation into Chinese violation of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. If, in the future, the US in unable to mitigate or accept these natural trade imbalances, the steps taken will inevitably be more drastic. If tariffs are introduced onto imports, then capital costs will increase for consumers and consequently, trade will decrease. If China doesn’t give way, it remains to be seen how other countries will respond, but it is absolutely certain that in the event of a trade war, there will be no winners.

 

Staff writer: Chen

English and Translation: Ari B