Taiwanese discourse has recently centered on the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the housing market on Taiwan.
Concerns have included inflation, which itself can mean that real estate becomes an apparently safer haven than cash, causing even more investor speculation which has been driving up prices for years.
However, this inflation could also lead to interest rate spikes, which although will not affect the investor frenzy cannibalizing supply, could certainly put a ceiling on the prices that consumers are able to secure loans for, itself popping the bubble.
Others have also cited the increasing value of the USD, which may lead to less capital transfer and more willingness for speculators to continue to drive up housing prices.
One final aspect left implied but unspoken is the risk of the destruction of the island that could happen if the Ukraine conflict emboldens the PRC to make an attempt to invade the island. Cities in Ukraine, especially the major entry sites for the invasion, have been left utterly destroyed, with most of the housing stock in cities like Mariopol completely decimated.
With most insurance companies unwilling to pay out damages due to war, then assuming those homeowners even survive the conflict, Taiwanese real estate would be left virtually worthless in the event of a conflict.
It would seem prudent that the government, rather than trying to prop up the real estate market for the benefit of their donors by refusing to tax multiple home ownership despite the housing crisis, redouble their efforts to secure Taiwan and deter military action that would see all of Taiwan potentially left an unlivable wasteland under totalitarian tyranny.